War-torn Myanmar Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unable to participate because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".