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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.